Welmer

The new realities of an energy-deficient world will inevitably create an economic shift away from our current service-oriented economy to the production of commodities. Unlike any other time in history, the production of food has been a relatively small part of our economic output for decades, with only a small fraction of our population actively engaged in agriculture. Huge advances in transportation and mechanization brought on by the Industrial Revolution and the use of cheap, abundant fossil fuels have enabled this transformation, but the availability of this energy is clearly not what it used to be.

Not only is the cost of transportation rising, but the cost of sowing, harvesting, fertilizing, irrigation and pest control have seen commensurate increases as well. It is not only biofuels that are spurring the recent rise in food prices; virtually every single agriculture-related cost has risen along with energy costs. The literate, urban class of writers, intellectuals and professionals has been focusing on the changing urban paradigm, promoting car-free spaces in cities, urban density and a transition away from the suburban lifestyle that characterized the latter half of the 20th century, but these concerns, in the long run, will turn out to be relatively minor compared to the vast changes that will accompany the looming, new reality.

What we are looking at is not a shift toward a more sustainable model of today’s society based on technological innovation and efficient design, but rather a return to more traditional modes of production. As the cost of food rises and transportation become increasingly expensive, agriculture will look like a more promising occupation than it has in a long while. Fertile land near population centers will become increasingly valued for its food production potential rather than housing development, and those who own it can realistically expect to see a rise in its relative value. Technology will doubtless soften the blow, but electric power from renewable resources will not be able to replace gas and liquid fuel and "organic" farming will become more of a necessity than a fad as fossil fuel derived fertilizers and pesticides see dramatic price increases. Huge factory farms will no longer have their current advantage, as the machines needed to run them will become prohibitively expensive to run, so the productive, family farm will gradually return as a vital part of our economy.

It will be the suburbs, where most Americans currently live, that take the biggest hit as the basis for their existence - the personal automobile - slowly becomes prohibitively expensive. The approaching irrelevance of the suburban lifestyle will be a devastating blow to many Americans, and will likely cause a rather abrupt increase in economic hardship amongst a previously affluent demographic. In fact, the trend has already begun, with poverty rising faster in suburbs than anywhere else.

Many of the people currently dwelling in suburbs, and some in cities, will be compelled to look for work in a revitalized agricultural sector. Some suburban lots and developments will probably be transformed to productive land, but the shift may be too rapid for an easy adjustment, and a significant proportion of those who must find work in food production rather than service jobs will be ill-prepared for their new occupation and will see a decline in status and lifestyle.

Historically, this would not be the first time a society has become more rather than less rural. Wars and epidemics have emptied cities many times in the past, and even deliberate policies, such as China’s Cultural Revolution, have resulted in population transfers from urban centers to rural areas. However, this time it will merely be a response to a new economic situation, and hopefully the result will not be as painful, but doubtless it will be profoundly unsettling to many, many Americans.