Welmer

McCain is taking a beating in the polls lately, and that probably does have a lot to do with the economy, but there are plenty of other reasons people do not want to vote for him. For one thing, he is a disagreeable character who regularly displays aggression, lapses into sarcasm and tells cruel jokes. His past successes came from his tenacity and propensity to hit hard, which enthused the opponents of his own rivals. This works in campaigns to a degree, but when people think long and hard about what kind of president they want, it isn’t someone like that. To add to his problems, even his strengths have been squandered in this campaign. His attacks on Obama have been bungled or had little effect. Obama isn’t the kind of opponent McCain is used to fighting. Secure in his Arizona senate seat, McCain’s main rivals before this election have been other Republicans — that is, other rich white guys. He clearly has no idea how to deal with a black urban democrat and is flailing badly in his attempt to find a weak spot.

But the real problem McCain has is that he isn’t even a real conservative. He is an open borders, warmongering neocon hack who supported the laissez faire economic policies that have just sucker-punched the American middle class. Why the Republican party thought a guy like that could win the election given our current state of affairs is beyond me. Just about the only thing he brings to the table is support from Vietnam vets, who don’t have quite the clout they used to. Despite McCain’s attempts to portray himself as someone who will “shake things up” and end the war and our economic problems, he is intimately tied to all the failed policies of the Bush administration, and people instinctively know it. The three failures in which McCain played a big role are the immigration fiasco, the war and the mortgage crisis. These are all huge issues that that have provoked a great deal of anger, and McCain is on the wrong side on each and every one.

My prediction is that in this election Obama will soundly defeat McCain, but not by winning over much – if any – Republican support. In fact, he will win because so many Republicans just won’t be able to bring themselves to check the box next to McCain’s name. I’d be willing to bet that middle and working class white men – the traditional Republican support base – will turn out in lower numbers than they have in a long time, and that will all but guarantee an Obama win.