Welmer

The fundamental difference between the Democratic and Republican parties lies in the demographics of their constituencies. Where the Republican base is homogeneous, the Democrats’ is diverse. Republicans are overwhelmingly white and working to upper-middle-class. Some Republicans are very rich, to be sure, but only a tiny minority. Quite a few Asian Americans are Republicans, but they constitute a relatively small minority of Americans. The Democrats, on the other hand, are the party of plurality. The extremely rich, the urban elite, the underclass, and the two biggest American ethnic minority groups are solidly Democratic. The term “diversity” hardly does justice to a party supported by Chicago slum dwellers as well as Bill Gates.

The plurality of the Democrats is a relatively recent thing; it has only been a few decades since working-class whites shifted toward the Republicans, and the explosive growth of the Hispanic population in the US has occurred mainly over the last twenty years. At times, the Democrats’ plurality has served them well, as in Clinton’s victories and Obama’s campaign. However, homogeneity has helped the Republicans, especially in the south. The two widely varying electoral strategies have contributed to a balance of power between the two parties for a couple of decades, but another shift is on the horizon, and despite their current euphoria, this one doesn’t look good for the Democrats.

The problem the Democrats will face is the wide gap between the expectations of their constituents. Most Democrats are probably not even aware of its width, but events during an Obama administration will expose a chasm. White Democrats’ main concern is peace. Not so much in the sense of stopping overseas military adventurism (although they support that, too) as in keeping their neighborhoods and cities from degenerating into dilapidated, dangerous slums. What they really want is to work and enjoy themselves in relative harmony with the other ethnic groups of their city. Asian Americans are essentially the same in this regard. Maintaining this kind of harmony and providing for the upkeep of a city is very expensive, and depends upon a large number of government employees and services. A big, diverse city needs big government, and because Democrats support tax-dependent services they get far more support in return from urban whites and Asians.

Non-Asian minorities, on the other hand, have different goals. They are very heavily dependent on government not so much as keeper of the peace (in fact, they often resent that aspect of government most of all), but as a provider of employment and social services. This is also expensive, but other city residents more or less support it as a means to keep harmony.

The race for the Democratic nomination, in which Obama brutalized Hillary Clinton, provided a glimpse of what’s in store for the Democrats in years to come. Although the infighting is over for now, it will begin anew as soon as the halcyon dreams of a “new America” wear off, which they inevitably will as soon as the social and economic mess we’ve been piling up since the end of the Cold War comes crashing down like Idiocracy’s Great Garbage Avalanche of 2505. The passage of proposition 8 in California is another exmple of a crack in the Democrats’ facade. Suddenly, Dermocratic values are far from clear.

Now that we have a very blue President from a deep blue city, we will find urban power struggles projected onto the national stage. Ironically, the different factions may find their position much stronger through cooperation with red America, which is still very much up for grabs. Utah Mormons, perhaps the reddest of red Americans, teamed up with urban blacks and Hispanics to defeat the aspirations of liberal, white urbanites. However, in the case of taxes red-leaning Americans may be more inclined to be on the side of more affluent urban whites.

What this suggests is that in the coming political paradigm red Americans’ political position will be bolstered as the key to making deals on the national level. Even in a time of Democratic dominance, the single largest and most powerful political block could turn out to be the red Americans, who have more muscle and clout than any single constituent demographic faction of the Democratic Party. Ultimately, the Democratic Party will turn out to be not one, but two or more parties acting in their own interests. This is best understood from the perspective of a resident of a blue city, who would know that despite all officials being democrats there is hardly a tranquil harmony that prevails in city politics. Now, all of America will get a taste of contemporary urban politics.

It remains to be seen how this will work on the national stage, but imagine something like this: All of the sudden San Francisco sees an influx of hundreds of thousands of rednecks. Nobody knows whose side they will be on, but when people look at the crowds at Gavin Newsom’s speeches, it’s pretty clear it will make a big difference.