Welmer

Not long ago, the press was covering the story of the resettlement of Uyghur refugees who had been taken captive during Operation Enduring Freedom and subsequently sent to Guantanamo Bay. Some are in Albania, one made it to Sweden, a few are in Bermuda, and the rest have been offered asylum in Palau.

Only one of the captured Uyghurs is alleged to be an Al-Qaeda member, and the rest were largely unfortunate men who had fled China or were trying to resist the PRC in one way or the other. None had any real argument with the United States, and they all appear to have been largely ignorant concerning the jihad against the US. In fact, prior to their capture, most thought of the US as an ally in their struggle against the PRC. To sum it up, they were mainly hapless political dissidents rather than hardcore jihadis.

Now what I’d really like to know, given the recent unrest in Xinjiang, is exactly what kind of intelligence they provided interrogators at Guantanamo Bay. Given that at least a few of them probably were sincere about resisting China in Xinjiang, and were allegedly plugged into the “East Turkestan Islamic Movement” (which may not actually exist), it would seem that these Uyghurs could be of great value to the US in harassing China.

The significance of Palau as a potential refuge for the Uyghurs has to do with its location, a recent defense deal, and historical operations carried out in the region. Although few people are aware that during the 1950s and 60s the US supported a guerrilla war against China through Tibetan activists, this was in fact an important CIA operation that yielded significant intelligence for the US on the then-isolated PRC. Tibetan dissidents were flown to the US for training, but the center of the operation was in Saipan, a US territory in the Pacific located relatively close to Palau.

Palau gained independence from the US in 1994, but the countries have continued to maintain a close relationship. Recently, Palau was offered $200 million as an incentive to continue to work with United States “sharing mutual burdens,” which according to William Cleary in a Pacific Daily News article, “[...] is a bargain in which the U.S. arguably will get its money’s worth by keeping the military forces of China and other rival powers out of Palau.”

Now, of course, the Chinese are stridently demanding the return of each and every Uyghur. China is using every bit of diplomatic leverage it can to have them returned, and most countries have shied away from offering them asylum. Ultimately, this may be in the interests of the US (which, I am starting to think, wants the Uyghurs working for our intelligence services) because they will be forced to stay on US territory or in satellite states such as Palau.

Evidently only one Uyghur has so far agreed to relocate to Palau, but eventually the number may rise, because 17 remain in Gitmo, and Chinese pressure guarantees that their options will be limited. I can imagine a new guerrilla operation intended to harass and pressure China through Xinjiang being run, at least partially, out of Palau. Because we now have a number of real, live ethnic Uyghur dissidents in US hands, the US has the tools to stir up trouble in China’s backyard, and I assume they will be put to use.